A BBVA Research report warns that global warming could reduce summer tourist demand by up to 19.6%, severely affecting the Canary Islands’ economy.
A study by BBVA Research has revealed that global warming could reduce summer tourism demand in the Canary Islands by up to 19.6%. This decline would significantly affect the Islands’ main economic engine if greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change are not controlled.
The findings of this report align with other studies that also predict a significant drop in tourism to the Canary Islands under worst-case climate scenarios. The main reason is the loss of thermal comfort and a decrease in the Holiday Climate Index for Beach (HCIB), meaning that high temperatures could make the Canary Islands’ beaches, a key tourist attraction, less appealing.
The study examines three different global warming scenarios projected by the IPCC: a low-emission scenario with a temperature increase of 1.8°C by 2100, a moderate scenario with 2.8°C, and an extreme scenario with a rise close to 5°C. The analysis was conducted by studying hotel overnight stays and using the widely accepted Tourist Comfort Index (TCI) to assess climate conditions.
The study’s conclusions indicate that by the end of the century, between 2090 and 2100, climate change will become a crucial factor in the seasonal and geographic distribution of tourism in Spain. Southern and Mediterranean coastal regions would experience a decline in tourism demand, while northern Spain could benefit from increased tourism, depending on the climate scenario. The Balearic Islands would be the most affected, with an annual drop in visitors of 27.4%, while in the Canary Islands, the provinces of Las Palmas and Santa Cruz de Tenerife would see declines of 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively.
However, despite these annual declines, the report highlights that the winter season in the Canary Islands, traditionally a peak period for tourism, would see an increase of up to 7.4% in tourist arrivals, particularly in the western province. Economist Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa, one of the study’s authors, points out that extreme heat will discourage summer travel to destinations like the Canary Islands, but that spring and autumn could become more attractive seasons if necessary adaptation measures are implemented.
Barrutiabengoa emphasizes the importance of the tourism sector’s adaptability to climate changes, noting that investments in infrastructure and diversification of attraction areas will be required to mitigate negative impacts. According to the economist, this presents “a great challenge, but also a great opportunity” for the Spanish tourism industry.
This study comes at a critical time for the Canary Islands, where residents are increasingly questioning the dominant tourism model in the region. Although the Archipelago is expected to close the year with a record 18 million tourists, criticism is growing over the negative effects of mass tourism, such as poor working conditions and environmental impact.
In 2022, tourism generated 16.961 billion euros, representing 35.5% of the Canary Islands’ GDP, and employed nearly 345,000 people, equivalent to 39.7% of total employment in the Archipelago. Despite these economic benefits, increasing social mobilizations reflect the growing dissatisfaction with the current tourism model.